e-verything
who pays
Readers. Bookmakers never do.
what we sell
The reasoning, not a pick.
the record
Every Probability graded in public.

CS2 · before the lock

The context that has not reached the price yet.

One Dossier per CS2 match: a win Probability, the three Drivers behind it, and every Flag with its source and its timestamp. Graded in public afterwards, whichever way it went.

See the Dossier

An example is on this page. Nothing to sign up for yet.

01
the sequence

Forty minutes of tabs, or two minutes on one page.

People lose money to information lag, not to bad math. A stand-in lands 25 minutes before a Bo3 and the price moves before the reader does. This is the order it happens in here.

  1. 01

    You land on the Dossier for tonight's series

    One page per upcoming CS2 match, live before the odds settle. No account, no configuration, no game to choose.

  2. 02

    The Flags are open to everyone

    Stand-ins, dead rubbers, a third series in 30 hours, veto history against this exact opponent. Each with its source and the time we read it.

  3. 03

    The Probability and its three Drivers sit behind an Event Pass

    €19.00 once, tied to one named tournament, every Dossier and every Flag alert for its full run. No renewal.

  4. 04

    After the series we grade the number

    Right or wrong, it joins Calibration with its date. When a Driver was wrong, the Dossier says which one and why.

02
the Dossier

A number, the three facts that produced it, and where each one came from.

This is the whole product: one page per series, opened at 19:40 with a match at 20:00. Nothing on it that you cannot trace to a source.

NAVI vs Vitality

Bo3 · locked 20:00 CET

IEM Katowice 2026 · quarter-final · winner to the semi-final

Probability — NAVI
63%
consensus
71%
gap
8 points
graded
after the series
Drivers
  1. 01

    NAVI have taken 6 of their last 7 maps on Mirage, and Vitality's veto leaves Mirage in against this opponent.

    Liquipedia veto log · 18:41 CET

  2. 02

    Vitality play their third series in 30 hours after a late finish and an overnight flight from Cologne.

    Tournament schedule · 18:44 CET

  3. 03

    NAVI are already through to the semi-final, so the series is a dead rubber for seeding only.

    Group standings · 19:02 CET

Flags — 4, in severity order
  • hard
    Stand-in confirmed
    Vitality field a stand-in in the entry role; the regular rifler is out ill.
    Team post · 19:12 CET
  • hard
    Third series in 30 hours
    Late finish at 01:40, travel at 07:00, no practice block since.
    Schedule · 18:44 CET
  • medium
    Dead rubber for NAVI
    Already qualified. Seeding is the only thing on the table.
    Standings · 19:02 CET
  • low
    Veto history
    Mirage has survived the veto in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
    Liquipedia · 18:41 CET
Form — last 5 maps, current lineups
NAVI
WWWLW
vs top-10: 3–1
Vitality
LWLWL
vs top-10: 1–3
Veto history — this pairing
MirageSurvives the veto4 of 5
AncientNAVI ban5 of 5
NukeVitality pick3 of 5
Example Dossier, shown open. On the desk the Flags are free and this row carries the Event Pass. Every fact keeps its source and its timestamp.
03
Calibration

The record starts empty, in public, and stays there.

Tipster channels delete the bad month. Every Probability the desk publishes is graded and kept, with its date, on one page anyone can read.

Calibration — all events
graded
0
hit rate
Brier score

0 graded. Too few to mean much. We will keep saying that until 100.

What a wrong call looks like here

Called Vitality 63%. Vitality lost 0–2. Driver 2 was wrong: the stand-in played the anchor role, not entry.

Published at the top of that Dossier and linked from the next Briefing. Being checkable is the only asset that lasts in this market.

04
the price

One payment, one tournament.

Readers pay the desk, so nobody else has to be kept happy. The terms in full, before anyone is asked for anything.

product
Event Pass
price
€19.00
covers
One named tournament, start to final
includes
Every Dossier, every Flag alert
renewal
None. It ends with the event.
refunds
In full if the event is cancelled. Not on results.

Checkout opens with the first covered event. Nothing is for sale on this page.

Questions a sceptic asks.

Do you sell picks?
No. The desk publishes a Probability and the three facts under it. The decision stays with the reader, always.
Why should we believe the number?
Because you can check it. Every Probability is graded after the match and the running record is a public page.
Where does the data come from?
Public fixtures, the Liquipedia API under attribution, and team and tournament announcements. Each fact on a Dossier is labelled and timed.
Which games are covered?
CS2 only, for now. Dota 2 follows the majors calendar, then League of Legends and Valorant.

Read the example, then judge the desk on the record.

The first covered event is the next one on the CS2 calendar.

See the Dossier