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BLAST Premier Open Porto 2026

Inner Circle vs MOUZ

Bo3 · starts

Group B — upper bracket semi-final. Winner to the upper bracket final

Ranks: Inner Circle 25 · MOUZ 3

Probability — MOUZ
78%
model base
81%
adjustment
-3 points
consensus
not sourced
graded
after the series

Ranks from Valve Regional Standings, 24 Aug 2026 snapshot (Liquipedia). The model in full

Drivers
  1. 01

    MOUZ are ranked 3rd and Inner Circle 25th in the 24 Aug Valve Regional Standings, which opens the model at MOUZ 81%.

    Valve Regional Standings (Liquipedia), 24 Aug snapshot · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC

  2. 02

    Inner Circle beat Vitality 2–0 in their opening Bo3 at this event, so the model takes three points off the favourite.

    blast.tv results, Group B · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC

  3. 03

    MOUZ arrive from a 2–0 over 9z in the same round with no roster change reported, so nothing is deducted on their side.

    blast.tv results and HLTV roster news · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC

Adjustments applied
  • -3Inner Circle beat Vitality 2–0 in their opening Bo3 here, so the model takes three points off a favourite facing a side that has already beaten a top-five team at this event.

This match has started. The Probability locked at the published start time and is now free to read.

Flags — 4, in severity order
free to everyone
  • medium
    Upset already on the board
    Inner Circle, ranked 25th, took out 5th-ranked Vitality 2–0 in the opening round here.
    blast.tv results · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC
  • medium
    Winner takes the upper bracket final
    Both sides are unbeaten in Group B; the loser drops to the lower bracket final rather than out.
    blast.tv bracket · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC
  • low
    No 2026 head-to-head sourced
    No meeting between these two in 2026 was found, so the number carries no head-to-head term.
    Liquipedia, HLTV · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC
  • low
    Start time unlabelled at source
    blast.tv publishes 07:30 with no timezone label. Read here as UTC.
    blast.tv · read 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC
Form — sourced results at this event
  • Inner Circle

    Beat Vitality 2–0, 27 Aug, opening Bo3 of Group B

  • MOUZ

    Beat 9z Team 2–0, 27 Aug, opening Bo3 of Group B

Head-to-head — 2026, current lineups

No 2026 meeting sourced. The number carries no head-to-head term.

Veto history — this pairing

Veto history unavailable. No per-team veto log for this event could be sourced, and the desk does not fill a gap with a guess. One pool fact is sourced: Cache replaced Overpass in the Active Duty pool on 6 Jul 2026 (HLTV, read 28 Aug).

Start time

This series starts at 11:30 UTC. The desk had it four hours earlier until 29 Aug: blast.tv and Liquipedia publish this event's clock as UTC-4, and we had read those numbers as UTC. Every start time on the desk is corrected. Confirmed against the blast.tv bracket, read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC.

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The Briefing

Every match day, 09:00. What changed, tonight's Slate, the widest gap.

Nothing new since 28 Aug, 13:20 UTC. The desk never fills a gap with a guess.