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BLAST Premier Open Porto 2026

M80 vs Aurora

Bo3 · starts

Group A — lower bracket, round 2. Loser is out of Porto

Ranks: M80 36 · Aurora 10

Probability — Aurora
68%
model base
71%
adjustment
-3 points
consensus
not sourced
graded
after the series

Ranks from Valve Regional Standings as published on the blast.tv match pages, read 29 Aug 2026. The model in full

Drivers
  1. 01

    Aurora sit 26 places above M80 in the Valve Regional Standings, which alone puts the series at 71%.

    Valve Regional Standings, blast.tv match page · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC

  2. 02

    M80 have already beaten a top-ten side here, taking NAVI 2-1 in the quarter-final, so the model gives back three points.

    blast.tv bracket, Group A · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC

  3. 03

    Aurora arrive on a 2-0 win over DENDELE after losing 0-2 to G2, so their event form is one win against one loss.

    blast.tv bracket, Group A · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC

Adjustments applied
  • -3M80 beat NAVI 2-1 in the upper bracket quarter-final on 26 Aug. The model takes three points off a favourite facing a side that has already beaten a top-ten team at this event.

This match has started. The Probability locked at the published start time and is now free to read.

Flags — 4, in severity order
free to everyone
  • hard
    Elimination match
    Both sides are in the lower bracket. The loser leaves Porto with no playoff route.
    blast.tv bracket · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC
  • medium
    M80 have an upset on the board
    M80, ranked 36th, knocked NAVI into the lower bracket 2-1 on 26 Aug. This is not a side playing to its ranking.
    blast.tv bracket · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC
  • medium
    M80 roster change this season
    M80 signed JBa ahead of the 2026 season and parted with HexT. It is a settled signing, not a stand-in, so the model applies no points for it.
    dust2.us and HLTV reporting, read 29 Aug · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC
  • low
    No stand-in reported on either side
    The desk found no substitute, coach absence or illness report for either roster in the last seven days.
    Desk check across blast.tv, Liquipedia and search · read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC
Form — sourced results at this event
  • Aurora

    Lost 0-2 to G2 in the quarter-final on 26 Aug, then beat DENDELE 2-0 in lower bracket round 1 on 28 Aug.

  • M80

    Beat NAVI 2-1 in the quarter-final on 26 Aug, then lost their upper bracket tie and dropped here.

Head-to-head — 2026, current lineups

No 2026 meeting sourced. The number carries no head-to-head term.

Veto history — this pairing

Veto history unavailable. No per-team veto log for this event could be sourced, and the desk does not fill a gap with a guess. One pool fact is sourced: Cache replaced Overpass in the Active Duty pool on 6 Jul 2026 (HLTV, read 28 Aug).

Start time

This series starts at 09:00 UTC. The desk had it four hours earlier until 29 Aug: blast.tv and Liquipedia publish this event's clock as UTC-4, and we had read those numbers as UTC. Every start time on the desk is corrected. Confirmed against the blast.tv match page, read 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC.

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The Briefing

Every match day, 09:00. What changed, tonight's Slate, the widest gap.

Nothing new since 29 Aug, 13:50 UTC. The desk never fills a gap with a guess.